What tactical nuances could decide Norway vs England in Saturday’s World Cup quarter-final in Miami? Our tactical dossier breaks down the key head-to-head clashes, threats and advantages facing Thomas Tuchel’s side.
Both teams overcame adversity in different ways in the round of 16. on Sunday to reach the World Cup quarter-finals for the first time in their history.
England, meanwhile, spent nearly half the game with 10 men before edging a thrilling at the Azteca.
According to Opta, England have a 62 per cent chance of beating Norway this weekend. But where could the game be won or lost?
England have seriously outshot Norway at this tournament, but Stale Solbakken's side have scored more goals. Why? Erling Haaland.
Haaland has scored seven goals from just 12 shots on target. He has only taken six shots off target, while his 4.32 non-penalty expected goals is more than any other player at the tournament.
That helps explain why Norway have the tournament's highest xG per shot. They do not create as much as England, but the chances they generate tend to be of high quality. Those opportunities typically fall to arguably the most clinical finisher in world football.
England, by contrast, hold the edge for attacking volume. They have produced more shots on target, more total expected goals, more big chances and far more passes into the opposition box.
Harry Kane has also been at his clinical best for England, scoring six goals from 19 shots, 10 of which have hit the target. But Kane's tournament haul includes two penalties, meaning Haaland's open-play threat still stands apart.
England's second major goal threat has been Jude Bellingham, who has scored four times and has narrowly edged Kane for expected goals from open play. But Marcus Rashford is the only other England player to have scored for Tuchel's side.
Norway's threat is even more concentrated. Haaland is six goals clear of four team-mates who have each scored once.
So, England are likely to create more attacking threat and spend more time around Norway's box. But, if the game comes down to chance conversion, Haaland gives Norway a weapon no other player can match.
Brazil failed to keep tight to Halaand in the round of 16 and were punished. England must learn from those mistakes.
On paper, England's success at penetrating defensive lines should bode well for Thomas Tuchel's side. Several players have shown they can thread passes through opposition blocks or carry the ball upfield at their feet.
Elliot Anderson has been key in that area for England, while Ezri Konsa - perhaps surprisingly - emerges as one of their most prolific players for breaking defensive lines. Jude Bellingham, Declan Rice and Harry Kane also feature prominently, underlining the variety of England's progression routes.
However, Norway have been just as effective as England at threading passes through opposition attacking and midfield banks.
That makes Sander Berge and Martin Odegaard central to Norway's hopes of escaping pressure and finding Haaland early. The pair have exchanged a team-high 128 passes during the tournament, giving Norway an obvious midfield axis for England to disrupt.
Tuchel will want England to stop Norway's pass-masters receiving with time and space, particularly in areas where Odegaard can turn and Berge can punch passes through the first lines of pressure.
England's defensive uncertainty deepened after the win over Mexico. Jarell Quansah was sent off for a dangerous tackle, that rules him out against Norway. picked up at the Azteca.
Opponents have attacked England's weakened right flank more frequently than the opposite side, seemingly looking to test a potential area of weakness - albeit only slightly.
The graphic below shows 39 per cent of opposition threat against England has come down that flank, compared with 35 per cent down the other side.
Tuchel has said Reece James could be fit to start at right-back this weekend, but Norway would surely look to test England's weakened flank if a makeshift option is required.
There are more positive signs for England, though. Norway rank below average among the remaining teams for the quantity and quality of chances conceded, shipping 1.8 goals per game - more than any other side still in the tournament.
At player level, Anderson again stands out as England's primary ball-winner in midfield, leading the team for possession won, interceptions and tackles. For Norway, England will need to find ways around Berge, who has been their key disruptor out of possession.
England's physical numbers are slightly distorted by playing nearly half the game with 10 men against Mexico, but the radar below suggests Norway have the running power to test England in Miami.
Haaland's bursts of pace remain one of England's biggest individual threats. He has clocked the fifth-fastest speed at the tournament, reaching 36.5km/h against France, with Anthony Gordon not far behind at 35.8km/h.
Only Morocco's Ismael Saibari and Belgium's Timothy Castagne have registered more sprints than Bellingham at this World Cup, underlining how important the Real Madrid midfielder's movement could be.
He will provide options ahead of Anderson and Rice, while also timing late runs into the box - something he has done to devastating effect in the knockout rounds.
High-speed runs are measured at a slightly lower threshold than sprints, and this is where Anderson and Odegaard are almost level. Their head-to-head battle for space, rhythm and creativity could become one of the key subplots of the game.
So, what can we expect on the pitch?
It goes without saying that England will look to block the supply lines to Haaland from midfield and wide areas, while their centre-backs will need to stay tight whenever he receives the ball in the box or within shooting range - that task becomes even more difficult if Guehi misses out.
Tuchel's side will also look to disrupt the Odegaard-Berge supply line in midfield and will be wary of Norway's impressive work rate, which is likely to be fully tested in the Miami heat.
Norway, meanwhile, could look to expose England's weakened right-back area if James is not declared fit to start. But England's focus will surely be on how their own attacking weapons can dismantle a vulnerable Norwegian defensive line.
The data suggests England will look to play on the front foot, using pace down the flanks, pressing high and creating sustained pressure around Norway's box. Norway, by contrast, may sit deeper and rely on a more economical approach: fewer attacks, fewer shots, but enough quality to punish England if chances fall Haaland's way.
On average, Haaland has scored once every 14 touches at this tournament - a terrifying ratio. But while England must find a way to limit him, the bigger challenge is to impose their superiority at the other end of the pitch.
